Climate Change Mitigation (CCM) Impact Evaluation 2014
The Climate Change Mitigation Impact Evaluation undertaken by the GEF Independent Evaluation Office focuses on the impact of 18 completed GEF energy-related mitigation projects in four large emerging markets: China, India, Mexico, and the Russian Federation. The projects cover various sectors with opportunities for renewable energy, energy efficiency, and methane emissions reductions. The evaluation included desk reviews of completed projects and extensive country work to assess progress toward impact since project completion, as well as to assess the relevant contextual country and global factors affecting the markets under consideration.
The evaluation found that sixteen of the 18 projects assessed have resulted in significant direct GHG emissions reductions. It found that indirect GHG emissions reductions, achieved through causal links from the projects to other activities, although estimated to be multiple times greater than direct emissions reductions are difficult to verify. The broader adoption of technologies, approaches, and strategies tested by GEF projects was observed in 15 cases. The evaluation found that projects demonstrating a high level of progress toward impact were those that had adopted comprehensive approaches to address market barriers and specifically targeted supportive policy frameworks, and that GEF has contributed to climate change mitigation primarily by speeding up the process of broader adoption. It also found that the methodology to measure GHG emissions and calculate emissions reductions at project completion was not robust and contained uncertainties.